Can We Forecast How Bad the Upcoming Bug Season Will Be?

November 29, 2022 12:00 am Published by Leave your thoughts

As we make our way into colder temperatures, prevention takes on an added level of importance during this time of year. This is especially true, as it pertains to ensuring that cockroaches and various rodents do not make their way into your home. That’s why you must contact a pest professional when these problems arise. After all, it is always better to be proactive than reactive.

Thanks to the bi-annual Bug Barometer® forecast, we now know exactly how bad the upcoming bug season is going to be. These seasonal projections let Americans know what they should be expecting in their respective regions. Pest biological behaviors, weather patterns, and long-term forecasts are used to make these determinations.

The National Pest Management Association (NPMA) is responsible for these projections, and their group’s entomology team believes we are on the cusp of increased pest activity. The mild, dry summer season leading into a colder, snowier winter will create an environment ripe for pests to scramble for shelter.

Jim Fredericks, Ph.D., chief entomologist for the NPMA, has more. “Prevention is key this time of year, especially as it pertains to keeping cockroaches and rodents out of your home,” Fredericks says. “Mice and rats invade an estimated 21 million U.S. homes each winter seeking respite from the bitter cold and snow, so be sure to eliminate any areas of moisture found in the home and be sure to keep your kitchen clean, storing food in airtight containers to keep pests out.”  

The entire United States is expected to experience these issues, so let’s take a moment to check out each region:


While winter in this region is expected to be mild, mouse-related activity is expected to rise as more rodents seek refuge in northwest US homes. Sheds and vehicles are also expected to be at risk.


Centipedes and cockroaches are expected to remain an issue, especially during the warmer fall months of the southwest. Rodent activity will be on the rise once temperatures start to cool as well.

South Central

Ants and cockroaches are slated to persist into the warmer fall months. Tick activity will also remain high until the temperatures have had the chance to dip below freezing.

North Central

Box elder bugs are more likely to flee into residences in this region because of the colder fall temperatures. Mouse activity will also become more common if the colder temperatures continue to persist.

Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley

As fall temperatures creep into the region, stink bugs will become more problematic in these regions. Tick presence could also remain high with average levels of precipitation and average temperatures. Rodents could be driven indoors on the early side because of slightly below-average winter temperatures.


Rodent activity across the southeast is likely to increase with colder-than-expected fall and winter temperatures that will cause them to seek shelter.

New England/Northeast

Tick activity is expected to remain high well into the winter months. Rodent activity will also begin sooner than usual, as the colder temperatures send them scurrying for indoor shelter.

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This post was written by Ken Perry

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